ONE DAY WITH MR. MINISTER

For long I have been thinking what these Ministers in Indian government. What do they do whole day and how they actually become ministers and so on. Actually this is not much different from bollywood star power where the son or daughter inherits the acting skills from their father or mother.  They may not know the ABC of acting but the producers are lined-up to for their debut. Politics is also similar, no need to quote examples. You all are very intelligent people.  

My Mr. Minister is a versatile MP who is quite dynamic and true politician by any nature and standards.    I called him and he invited me to his house as he was scheduled to travel and I would accompany him.

 

Bhejafry:         Good morning Mr. Minister and I am grateful to you for spending one day with me.

Minister:         Oh thanks to you Bheja Fry, I am sure we both will enjoy each others company. Would you like to have some breakfast ?

Bhejafry:          (I was hungry but resisted) No.. No.. thanks.. I had it before I started.

Minister:         Have it, it has come from the nearby hotel.  He sends me every morning. After all I am MP from this constituency. Out of love and affection he also sends me lunch and dinner.

Bhejafry:         (my mind was zoomed as I could understand his meaning of love – read threat) oh this is so nice of him Mr. Minister. So let’s start with some light conversation.  What prompted you to come in politics ?

Minister:         What prompted me, meaning ? No one whispered in my ear, so where is the question of prompting me. I am educated enough to understand the importance of being in politics. Like you have in industry PPP – Public Private Partnership, similarly we have PPP in Politics also – Power, Position and Paisa  ha..ha…ha…(laughed).

Bhejafry:          Oh so you came for Paisa or Power or Position.

Minister:         You are frying my bheja, Bhejafry. I came for all three. But most important is Paisa. You see, your breakfast, lunch and dinner comes automatically. After all I am MP from this constituency.

Bhejafry:          How much are you educated Mr. Minister? I mean your qualifications.

Minister:          I don’t know and I won’t reply.  Next Question.

Bhejafry:          Please Mr. Minister, it is an important question.

Minister:          What is the relation between becoming a Minister with education? If education was the criteria I would have become an IAS or Collector. Your question is invalid. Question does not arise. I can talk English, sign in English and Hindi. What more.

Bhejafry:          I can understand your problem Mr. Minister. How has been your journey in Politics?

Minister:          My journey has been full of struggle. No one supported me. I came as an independent candidate and then remained for a brief period in every party you name – Congress, BJP, BJD, Janta Dal, CPM, SP,  Kalu Ram, Samjhouta Party, almost all the parties. My experience is quite large.

Bhejafry:          But then why did you leave these parties.

Minister:          Are na..na..  (gets irritated) I did not leave, they asked me to leave. They all blamed that, though I was in their party but actually working for the opposition party. So I thought better join the opposition party.

Bhejafry:          This was really amazing.  Indeed your journey has been very tough. Ok what would you like to talk about the condition of Indian economy today? Who is responsible?

Minister:          (Replying promptly) People of India are responsible for this mess. See, they only voted for this party and now blaming.

Bhejafry:          Even you belong to the same party Mr. Minister. So you are responsible too.

Minister:          (gets angry) How am I responsible ? I am not. You are also talking like other senior members in the party. I am being looked in suspicion every moment. This party also feels that I am working for opposition party when I shout against petrol price hike, rising prices, inflation, GDP, employment, industrialization.

Bhejafry:          Oh that’s serious. What do you think about our country? Where is it progressing?

Minister:          No Where Bhejafry (satisfied feeling). Now don’t say I am responsible for this too. As such I am shifting my party before the coming elections. I am also dissatisfied, the way this party is working.

Bhejafry:          Mr. Minister, what vision you for atleast your constituency. What have you done for the people of your constituency ?

Minister:          What can I do Bhejafry? Rains and Pains, in this country, don’t come with invitation. I am also one of them, I mean a common man who is frustrated and harassed. Rather I need their help and support in winning the elections every time.

Bhejafry:          Mr. Minister just a couple of days back one of your prominent minister said the country is not progressing because `Rahul’ is not advising. What you have to say on this.

Minister:          I am very annoyed with Media. It has twisted the statement of the Hon’ble Minister. The gentleman who said meant `Rahul Mahajan’ and certainly not `Rahul Gandhi’.

Bhejafry:          What Rahul Mahajan? There is no comparison between Rahul Mahajan and Rahul Gandhi. What he meant was Rahul Gandhi only.

Minister:          I can’t and won’t comment. Anyways he has clarified and given a statement. Actually he had some personal problems which has been sorted now. No more confusions.

Bhejafry:          Mr. Minister, the country is passing through a bad patch. GDP, Investments, Industry, People etc. are not at all happy. Foreign countries do not want to invest in India any more. What you have to say on this?

Minister:          India is a democratic country and every one has a right to raise his voice. I have a solution; we should make all the Activists, who are working against Industries and government, Ministers of the very same portfolios.  Activists as Minister for Industry, Minister of Environment & Forest, Minister of Coal, Minister of Mines, Minister of Finance and also of Planning Commission. Let them run the country and we would sit on Dharna outside their houses or on Boat Club.

Bhejafry:          There is not much difference for them between `running a country’ and `ruining a country’.  For them GDP means `God Damn Protest’. But don’t you think, the government should look for the growth and give Industries their well deserved importance and respect. Rather than Ministers themselves talking like activists.

Minister:          I agree with you. But you know `vote bank’. People are our vote bank and if we annoy them they would not vote for us. No one wants to take that risk Bhejafry. They are more worried about coming elections rather then Indian Economy.

Bhejafry:          But industries do give you funds besides providing employment, infrastructure development, taxes, valuable products, global position to India etc.

Minister:          We do get funds from Industries but that is for some other purpose which I can’t disclose. And I am not sorry.  After all I am MP from this constituency. The problem is with the industries also. Why do they need land for everything? Why they need to expand and grow all the time? Can’t they sit quietly and remain in low key. They should become selfish and look for themselves rather then thinking about the Country, Economy, Growth, Development.  Bhejafry, we are there, 545 + 270 MPs of Lok Sabha and Rajya Sabha, and many more commissions, committees and EGoMs.

Bhejafry:          But still Mr. Minister, if the industries decide to close their troubled business, you will have serious problem.  Government does not generate employment and does not have cash to give salaries (Indian Airlines) how the government would provide needed products and services to the people. This is indeed a very sad position.

Minister:          What can I do Bhejafry? I am part of the government but not government. No one listens to me. (Feeling very sad) The files are written in high-flying English, which I cannot understand and I am there and required to just sign, which also I learned after doing 3 months crash course in New Delhi. These Govt. Secretaries tell me what to talk, how much to talk, when to talk and where to keep quite.

When ever I sign a file, I always have this feeling that I am signing my death warrant.

Bhejafry:          You should thank the bureaucrats for providing knowledge to the ministries or otherwise, we would have only primary schools Mr. Minister !!!!. Anyways, what is your take on helping the poor people in the country. What should be done?

Minister:          Poor people? Meaning people who are actually poor or declared poor under the various reservation policies and reports, particularly international reports? What exactly you mean by poor. I have my poor servant who has a colour television, his children go to convent school and he has a bike too.

Bhejafry:          Mr. Minister I am talking about real poor who live in rural areas and do not get enough food, shelter and are deprived of basic amenities.  Is your government doing anything for these poor people ?

Minister:          Oh these people. We believe in removing the cause from its roots. So to remove poverty we need to remove the poor and we are working since last 60 years in the same direction. We have recently formed a high-level committee to look into this matter from a fresh perspective. If they are find solutions, good, or we have secretaries committees and if they fail too, we have EGoMs.

Bhejafry:          I came to know that you traveled abroad six times in a year. Is that true?

Minister:          I don’t travel, Ministers of foreign countries invite me for discussions on various issues.

Bhejafry:          Mr. Minister I know how much you are educated and your vision and mission, why would one foreign minister like to discuss with you?

Minister:          You don’t know. The ministers on the other side are also like us. One time we call them and one time they call us. It is a mutual exchange program.

Bhejafry:          Ministers are representatives of public (MPs become Ministers) who are entrusted with faith that they would work towards development of the country and their welfare.  What is your opinion about this.

Minister:          See, a Minister is a quite stressed poor dissatisfied soul who is solely dependent on either his secretariat or people who voted for him. His soul looms between these two. Without the support of both he is nothing. So instead of thinking about anything else, country, people, development, growth, economy, GDP or national income; the Minister is more worried about his position.

Some think broke aloud with a thundering noise… I woke up from the sleep..   Down on the street people were fighting for water.  The fan was not working as there was no electricity. I realized, it was a dream.  I thanked god, to let it remain a dream, the reality is much more painful.

My Bheja was Fried.

Indian Decides on President, But Who Should Be ?

Chanakya Said, "Before you start some work, always ask yourself three questions -  Why am I doing it, What the results might be and Will I be successful. Only when you think deeply and find satisfactory answers to these questions, go ahead."

Today's most contested question is "who should be the next President of India", Bheja Fry has 3 thoughts (1) who is well educated (2) Who we all should respect (3) Who is above political networking. 

I was searching for my answers and I realized DADA / DIDI / MULAYAM / UPA / NDA are all like IPL - Indian Problem League - people who have only complecated a normal genuine issue. Very rare one would see such a match fixing where most of the 550 members of Lok Sabha and 250 members of Rajya Sabha participate and the playground is non other than Parliament.

Common think about the common man. What greatness means I can narrate you in the following story.

Scientists at the Rocket launching station in Thumba, were in the habit of working for nearly 12 to 18 hours a day. There were about Seventy such scientists working on a project. All the scientists were really frustrated due to the pressure of work and the demands of their boss but everyone was loyal to him and did not think of quitting the job.

One day, one scientist came to his boss and told him - Sir, I have promised to my children that I will take them to the exhibition going on in our township. So I want to leave the office at 5 30 pm.

His boss replied - O K, , You are permitted to leave the office early today.

The Scientist started working. He continued his work after lunch. As usual he got involved to such an extent that he looked at his watch when he felt he was close to completion.The time was 8.30 p.m

Suddenly he remembered of the promise he had given to his children. He looked for his boss,,He was not there. Having told him in the morning itself, he closed everything and left for home.

Deep within himself, he was feeling guilty for having disappointed his children.

He reached home. Children were not there.His wife alone was sitting in the hall and reading magazines. The situation was explosive, any talk would boomerang on him.

His wife asked him - Would you like to have coffee or shall I straight away serve dinner if you are hungry.

The man replied - If you would like to have coffee, i too will have but what about Children???

Wife replied- You don't know - Your manager came at 5 15 p.m and has taken the children to the exhibition.

What had really happened was

The boss who granted him permission was observing him working seriously at 5.00 p.m. He thought to himself, this person will not leave the work, but if he has promised his children they should enjoy the visit to exhibition. So he took the lead in taking them to exhibition

The boss does not have to do it everytime. But once it is done, loyalty is established.

That is why all the scientists at Thumba continued to work under their boss eventhough the stress was tremendous.

By the way , can you hazard a guess as to who the boss was????????
.

He was none other than Mr. A P J Abdul Kalam. 

Now, do you still need DADAs / DIDIs to advise you..!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

The Sobbing Operas of Industries in India

PR Ramesh story in Economic times, 'Govt has no business to be in Business',  may not be digested to many in political circles but ask any industrialist and he would agree with what Mr. Narendra Gujarat Modi has said. These industrialists have either run away from few chosen states or have become sick of waiting for permissions from the Govt. No one wants to go West Bengal, Karnataka, Orissa, Andhra Pradesh for that matter at any cost.

Ask TATA who had to take is auto like car from West Bengal to Gujarat. Or for that matter Reliance who had to sell vegetables any where but Uttar Pradesh. Look at Maruti who left Haryana for Gujarat again.

Worse, ask companies like POSCO  who is still struggling to understand what went wrong. On the other hand Vedanta's venture in lanjigarh stopped before it was to take off. Both have already spent together about 100,000 crore.

Like Gujarat, Bihar has become quite a significant destination for industries.  And why not, the boundaries of the State remained the same only the leadership changed or I should say retained.

Mr. Modi, the kind of open policies you have given in Gujarat is worth commendation.  Where newspapers are talking and taking bites of people about the GDP, inflation, agriculture and corruption; you are quietly working towards growth story of Gujarat. Mr. Nitish too is busy in his state and least bothered about what the country is upto.

Gentlemen, please give some sense to CMs who should know what industries mean to a State. No objective of any Plan can be achieved, whether 5 year of 20 year, if you annoy industries.

Bheja Fry is referring to a story today by Kaushik Datta on predictable GDP - 7%, again in Economic Times. Do we ever get the GDP figures State wise published in national dailies also highlighting the reasons why a particular state is doing good or bad ?  Why is it that few states remain always in limelight for wrong reasons ?

Mr. Naveen Patnaik must be tired of listening to Activists, NGOs, Industries, MOEF, Coal Ministry, Mine Ministry, Power Ministry, you name it and he will say yes.  My office has become worse than assembly.  Similars are the states like Uttar Pradesh, West Bengal or Karnataka, where no industry wants to give it a try.


When suddenly you see a government company like NALCO moving to set-up bauxite plant in Gujarat it gives you a surprise. NALCO which already has a plant in Orissa is moving from Orissa and setting up another plant in Gujarat ? Why ? I believe Orissa has abundance of bauxite and that also good quality and it would have been advisable for the company to put-up another plant in Orissa itself. Coal, power and water is also not the issue in Orissa, but then why NALCO decided to venture in Gujarat?

The answer remains in leadership.  On one hand where Orissa has become a heaven for NGOs and activists, the states like Gujarat or Bihar have become `friendly states' where no NGO or Activists would dare to venture.

Who lost ? Only the industries lost, development lost, people lost and more so the country lost the opportunity to provide resources to people.

Who gained ? No one actually, but if Bheja Fry is forced to say, then this brought a lot of content writing for media, so media gained, their TRP and circulation added and further some people became famous for all the wrong reasons.

Bheja Fry feels something should be done to bring sense to ailing states who are not only blocking the GDP of India but also killing opportunities for employment, development and India's growth story.

Economic Times - Will Quit Public Life if Proven Guilty, Says PM

Published in Economic Times on 31st May 2012

Prime Minister Manmohan Singh on Tuesday rubbished Team Anna’s allegations of corruption against him and his cabinet and said he would quit public life if allegations levelled against him in the allocation of coal blocks were proven. "I will give up my public life if allegations are proved against me. It is unfortunate that irresponsible allegations relating to irregularities in allocation of coal blocks are being made without confirming facts," Singh told reporters on his way back from Myanmar.

The issue of coal block allocation came in the public domain in March after a leaked draft report of the Comptroller and Auditor General (CAG) said the government had given away blocks estimated to be worth . 10.7 lakh crore to private firms. It had said the allocation of 155 blocks between 2004 and 2009 gave companies "undue benefits" of . 10.7 lakh crore.

Citing the draft CAG report, Team Anna had said the prime minister, who was in charge of the department, ‘abused his position to give huge pecuniary benefits to private parties’. It sought an investigation against him and 14 other ministers on charges of corruption. On Monday, the PMO issued a clarification on the charges levelled by Team Anna on the allocation of coal blocks between 2006 and 2009, and said the coal blocks were privatized to meet the growing demand that Coal India failed to meet. Meanwhile, even members of Team Anna were divided over charges of corruption against the prime minister. Hegde Disapproves of ‘Shikhandi’ Comment.

Former Karnataka Lokayukta Santosh Hegde dissociated himself from the charges against Singh. "I do not have the material that Team Anna has as I was not in the meeting (where the issue was discussed). Without studying the material against the ministers, I do not want to comment on it or associate myself with it," Hegde told reporters in Bangalore. He also disapproved of Team Anna member Prashant Bhushan calling the prime minister Shikhandi. "It is not proper. You don't use such words against the prime minister," he said. Earlier, the coal ministry had defended the government, saying blocks were allocated impartially and in the interest of economic growth. The coal ministry says the value of these blocks should not be estimated on the basis of open market prices. "Since the blocks are allocated to private companies only for captive purposes for the specified end-use, the question of linking the blocks to the market price of coal does not arise at all," the ministry said.

It said the blocks were given to companies at a time demand was weak and there was hardly any pressure for allocation, but several sectors needed captive mines to spur growth. "To put the country on a path of higher growth, capacities in power, steel, cement sectors were required to be added expeditiously. This was one of the main reasons for continuation of allocation of the captive coal blocks," the coal ministry said.

Bheja Fry - Govt. IPL – Indian Petrol League

So we back to the square one.  I told you it is difficult to have a peaceful sleep. Another bomb by the Govt. and this time it is 10% increase in petrol prices - Rs. 7.50 per litre. I am sure once we all cry in the same tone, they would roll back. They are habitual and we are habitual.

When the youth is watching IPL the whole of the country is experiencing another IPL, the INDIAN PETROL LEAGUE. Since past two days so much has been written on the Facebook, but it is all scattered. Join the BHEJA FRY INDIA , LIKE the page and express yourself.

Now just wait and watch.. From Vegetable to the bottle of blood, everything will become costly. Who said ' Tum Mujhe Khun Do Main Tumhe Azadi Doonga'. Got the freedom, to be again slaved by Cong Govt. It just refuses to leave.

I thing government has decided to disinvest the Disinvestment Ministry and meet the targets or deficit from the middle and upper middle class.

On one hand they have squeezed the flow of funds from the industries, foreign investors have disinvested and ran away.  On the other hand their ‘Go Green’.. so - no growth no tax no income.

Mr. Mukherjee, you are busy making the paper on Black Money and the people of India are starving to save their White Money, right Mrs. Kiran Bedi.

I heard on the corridors of Parliament,  post petrol hike, the price of Horse increased;  and you all thought only dollar and rupee were related.

Tell me why the hell Bheja will not get fried.

Business Standard - What is India’s real growth potential?

Published on 23rd May 2012

The writer is a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics and Centre for Global Development, Washington

In 2004, before India’s growth surge towards Chinese levels became evident, Dani Rodrik of Harvard University and I wrote in the Economic and Political Weekly that India’s potential growth was "at least 7 per cent". The outcome over the next few years was a pleasant surprise, but also a mild rebuke of our analysis. Not only did actual growth surpass our projection, it was achieved much sooner than our "medium-term" horizon — which was evasive econo-speak for "not immediately, but sometime in the future".

Now, as economic growth declines from its giddy pre- crisis levels, two questions arise. First, what is India’s true growth potential: today’s rate of close to seven per cent, as we had suggested, or the pre- global crisis rate of nine per cent? Second, has this government contributed to a decline in this potential? Consider each.

Today, analytics and evidence suggest that the nine per cent pre- crisis performance may have been the aberration. In the comparison across countries, and even allowing for some initial advantage, India’s growth performance was inexplicable. By any measure of market-based reform –trade opening, privatisation, liberalization of the financial sector – and whether reform is measured in terms of levels or changes, India has lagged most developing countries in Africa, Latin America, and perhaps also China. Yet its growth was nearly twice the average for developing countries outside Asia. This cross-country comparison also ruled out benign international conditions in the years before the global crisis – which, after all, benefitted all countries –as an explanation for India’s unusually strong performance.

Moreover, the case could be made that each of the factors of production that contribute towards India’s supply potential is becoming scarce. Skilled labour, which has become a source of India’s comparative advantage, has been remunerated in double digits for nearly two decades in part because higher education is in too sorry a state to rise to the demands of an economy that is hungry for skills.

Social capital (or governance) has been depleted because of corruption and weak state capacity. Deteriorating governance has, in turn, meant that infrastructure, especially power, has not kept pace with the demands of high growth. It has also meant that as the locus of corruption shifted to land, prices started skyrocketing, rendering it an increasingly scarce factor of production. And India’s abundant unskilled labour is essentially not part of the equation because a panoply of regulations leads to its chronic underutilization.

The most telling macroeconomic manifestation of these constraints has been persistently high inflation, the highest amongst emerging markets. The longer it has persisted, the less convincing micro explanations –food shortages, rising minimum support prices, employment guarantee schemes –sound, and the more the finger points at the simpler explanation that, in the aggregate, supply is failing to keep up with rising demand.

The conclusion is that India may, in the absence of significant supply-enhancing reform, have to get used to lower rates of growth –of six or seven per cent –as the norm. To put it more starkly, the puzzle is not why growth is slowing today, but why growth was high in the first place in the years before the crisis.

This government’s fearlessness in keeping the pedal on demand, by increasing social expenditures, maintaining subsidies, and reducing taxes (until the most recent Budget), is well known. But what role has it played in determining India’s supply potential? One weak compliment that might be paid to this government is that while it may have been unable to resist fiscal populism, it has not reversed the fundamental course of market-based reforms: protectionist trade barriers have not been erected; the state has not taken over more of economic activity (as is alleged in China); the domestic financial sector has not been re-regulated in a way that thwarts efficiency; and, if anything, the economy has been further opened towards foreign capital (in response to the recent decline of the rupee, the Reserve Bank of India has had to re-impose restrictions that hark back to the 1970s, but these are relatively minor).

What, then, is the complaint? In the last few years, the Indian economy has become increasingly afflicted by the curse of rents. There have been terrestrial rents (from the allocation of land), subterranean rents (from the allocation of rights to coal mining and oil and gas exploration) and ethereal rents (from the allocation of spectrum). The curse has not just been the unfair sharing of the rents between the government and private sector at the expense of the consumer. It has really been the resulting efficiency cost, whereby corruption has impaired the supply capacity of the economy. Rent-seeking in land has affected the provision of infrastructure.

Rent-seeking in coal has affected power generation capacity. Rent-seeking in spectrum nearly paralysed the process of government itself. The private sector is far from blameless for the surge in rent-seeking, but this government is its root cause because it decides and controls the allocation of scarce resources.

More recently, though, policy-making has taken anew twist. For reasons still unclear, the government wants to address the epic corruption and venality that it has presided over. From being cosy with the private sector, policies are issuing forth from the government that smack of hostility to some or large parts of it. Whether this near volte-face will reduce rent-seeking is unclear, but they seem to be taking a toll on the environment for private investment and risk-taking. The government seems to be correcting one wrong by committing another. Each of these actions – whether the retroactive amendment on taxes or the new guidelines for the telecommunications sector –may have some extenuating rationale, but the overall effect, actual and perceived, is negative. The plunging rupee is, above all, an expression of deep concern about the impact of these actions on, and hence a downgrading of, India’s medium-term growth prospects.

Can this government summon the will to change course? If current trends continue, this government may well have to go to the polls at a time of decelerating growth and high inflation. And the likely consequence will be electoral humiliation as long as the Opposition is not in total disarray. Avoiding political extinction should be the spur for action for this government.

The nine per cent growth of UPA-I was an aberration. But voters will still judge this government by that standard, says Arvind Subramanian

Source:

http://epaper.business-standard.com/bsepaper/svww_zoomart.php?Artname=20120523aN011101002&ileft=334&itop=44&zoomRatio=130&AN=20120523aN011101002

Economic Times - Why investors are wary of India

Even as the world watches Greece, the UPA-II has managed to script its own Greek tragedy at home.

In its three years at the helm, the government and its other arms have alienated companies and investors in sector after sector with its decisions - or, equally, its indecision.

TAX RULES

Vodafone, Similar Deals

Retrospective change in rules to tax deals between two foreign entities for an Indian asset. Rs 20,400 cr is the claim on Vodafone and could set a precedent.

Anti-Avoidance Rules

Software Products

Budget proposes to treat 'income' from sale of packaged software as 'royalty', with effect from 1976. MNCs such as Adobe, Microsoft, Oracle and SAP, which pay tax elsewhere, would pay 10-20% in India.

OIL & GAS

Deal Delay

Vedanta waits 17 months for government nod to buy Cairn and also accepts a heavy royalty burden.

RIL Penalty

The govt tells RIL it can't claim $1.23 billion of its development cost in the K-G basin as it has not met output commitments.

Reforms

Oil subsidies remain misdirected and a strain on the country's finances.

TELECOM

Licence Cancellation

SC cancels 122 mobile permits issued by former telecom minister A Raja. Norway's Telenor, Russia's Sistema, UAE's Etisalat and Bahrain's Batelco write off $3 billion. Etisalat & Batelco exit, Telenor & Sistema threaten to exit India.TRAI proposals on spectrum auction have irked old and new players alike.

POWER

Coal Crunch

Even as power plants gasp for coal, PSU monopoly Coal India is acting like one - its production is stagnant at 431-435 million tonnes in the last 3 years.

PHARMA

Buyouts M&As delayed as government stops automatic approval for acquisitions by foreign companies and new rules yet to be finalised.

Patents

India's first 'compulsory licence', for Bayer's cancer drug Nexavar, overrules a patent-holder's rights in lifesaving drugs.

BANKING & FINANCIAL

FDI in insurance - Not raised from 26% in spite of being talked about for a decade.

New Banks

Promised by UPA-I in 2004, none issued as yet.Although GAAR, which aims to check tax evasion by foreign investors, has been deferred by a year uncertainty remains.

Published on 22nd May 2012

BHEJA FRY

In 1948, just about the post independence era, the government was the most dominant factor, it is still today, I dare not deny this.  The participation of private sector was `just’ present.  People respected government and industries both.  The reciprocation was equally appreciable.  

After 10 years the profile of industries started changing.  The government realized that the country needs public and private sector both to grow and develop and that is where the strengthening of mixed economy started, which was different from the than USSR and America.

We were coming out of almost 200 years of British Rule and the time taken to put the entire system into place was very well understandable. Everyone understood.

India passed through another phase, phase of wars – first with Pakistan and then with China. The economy broke into pieces but the government, people and the industries again came together to build a stronger India.

These crises never dithered India from its growth.  The GDP fluctuated between 3.5 to 6, but the country never took a back-step from its development.  Industrialization picked up and so the borrowing from World Bank, IMF like organizations.

I remember the time when India introduced New Economy Policy, in 1990s.  The country took all the measures to not only structure the policies to invite foreign investments but also structure internal taxation process.  India became open market for most of the best industries globally.

Liberalization – Globalization – Privatization took country into a new direction, towards an unparallel growth.

How much true it is !!! When the world was in deep financial crises, India was one of the rare if not the only country sitting atop with full support coming from Industries and people.

Oh.. Oh.. Oh.. Have I not spoken too much on the goody goody situation of India?  Let me come back to realities of today. Let us start naming few past and present - Harshad Mehta, 2Gs, Satyam Raju, Neera Radia, Cairn Oil Deal, Falling of Rupee, Foreign Direct Investments, Changing Policies as per whims and wishes, Tax Burden and the most fashionable today, the interference of foreign NGOs in India Economy.

From GDP to Coal Crises to Power Crises to Inflation to Environment Policy to Foreign Taxation Policy to Coal Policy to Delayed Clearances to Agitations to Land Issues to Water Issues to Income Tax issues to Pollution to Corruption to Politics etc.. every thing brought country into limelight, but for a different reason.

The situation is so worse today that Anna Hazare and Aamir Khan had to come forward to put the things in place… not mentioning the celebrities a reason to earn motive. The crises needs more of "Sach Ka Saamna" than "Satyamav Jayate".

When you read morning newspaper, it HURTS.  But not anymore, I have found a solution. "BHEJA FRY".

BHEJA FRY is NOT AN EFFORT to build a strong platform to discuss prevailing critical issues in the country.. NO.. It a platform where you, me and many more like us can take out all the frustration and go happy to their offices or homes, thinking…. ‘All is Well’… `We Shall Overcome One day’ … It took many years for a monkey to become a man..

These are my views..

BHEJA FRY

Financial Express - National Interest - Anybody out there?

By: Shekhar Gupta published on 21st May 2012

The flavor of this disastrous season seems to be distinctly Greek. Who is to blame for the rupee and the Indian stock market being the emerging markets’ worst performers? And, of course, as the brilliant and irrepressible Indian Express columnist Surjit Bhalla pointed out in Saturday’s Op-ed page, for India’s industrial production growth being the lowest in the world outside Europe? Of course, it is the wretched debt-defaulting Greek.

And who is responsible for this state of total decision paralysis, a loss of political authority so severe that in one sector after the other, bureaucrats have taken over all power? Where the almighty Sarkar-e- Hind has to unleash the governance equivalent of a WMD by issuing a presidential directive to one of its own PSU monopolies to supply coal to stranded power producers even if it is entirely according to its laid-down policy? Where economic bills are being put in cold storage even when many have the BJP’s support? And where, two months from the installation of the new president of the republic, the ruling party is still keeping all its hopefuls on wait? If they were to be held responsible for this total paralysis of political governance in India, then those 11 million Greeks would have to be awfully hard-working people. Unless, of course, our famous CAG carried out their last census and counts, as it has often done lately, the 11 million as 110 crore: what’s a few more zeros between friends? After all, you have to be given a margin of error.

Take a closer look at this total abdication of political authority by UPA 2. After the courts and civil society moved in to fill the governance space ceded by UPA 2, what was left has been taken over by the civil services. After the courts, now regulators, who are almost all retired civil servants, are determining basic policy while senior ministers wring their hands in main- kya- karoon despair that has now been printed on the calling card of this cabinet: take TRAI, for example. One year ago, we were all fighting to defend the political class, and justifying its supremacy in a democracy as the assault from Anna’s civil society raged. Today, we have entered a fascinating new phase in democratic evolution, where civil servants are so dominant, they are also cornering many of the sinecures the political class usually counted as its own. Note, for example, how retired IAS and IPS (in fact, more IPS than IAS) officers have governorships of more key states in the country than political veterans. Who do you blame for this political debacle? The Greeks?

You have to look within, a skill and quality UPA 2 has lost, caught in the maze of confusion, scams, its lack of conviction. But, most importantly, its lack of leadership. The old story of discord between the party and the government is rubbish. Surely, the government is neither deciding, nor implementing. But, equally, the party either does not know what it wants or is not telling anybody. Unless you think it is being done through leaks, deep-background briefings and whispers that are usually prefixed with "but 10 Janpath has a different view...". Has anybody heard 10 Janpath’s point of view on any key policy issue? Or of 12 Tughlaq Lane (Rahul Gandhi’s residence)? And let’s be fair, have you lately heard what 7 Race Course Road thinks on any of the issues, problems and pains assailing India today? A capital city like this, where no one speaks to anybody in such a vast country, may be fascinating for journalists and pundits. But it looks like a very, very foreign place to the rest of India. A very alien place, more distant than even Greece.

We have, today, an incredible situation where the top three in the ruling establishment almost never speak to the people of India. Sonia, Rahul and the prime minister speak sparingly in Parliament, almost never to the media and hardly ever directly to the people of India, except during election campaigns. Media, you can understand. Everybody seems to think that journalists are vermin and the only thing they now need is regulation. UPA 2 has also added Indian entrepreneurs to that category. Go back to some of the footage that shows Revenue Secretary R.S. Gujral admonishing the captains of corporate India at FICCI and CII forums. Nobody knows if he was mandated by the finance minister to do so, but entrepreneurial India has not been kicked around so rudely since the V.P. Singh- Bhure Lal raid raj. you have today an establishment where nobody speaks with their people. Nobody explains any action taken, and certainly nobody tries to build any public opinion for any contemplated policy action. You cannot help thinking sometimes that our establishment has lapsed into some old Beijing/ Moscow style of governance. But at least then you could pore over People’s Daily, Pravda or some such and read between the lines and guess what was on the comrades’ mind. Not so in India, today. The Congress does not have an official daily, and the government does not speak through any official media. In fact, if you looked at government-owned TV, particularly the Lok Sabha and Rajya Sabha channels, you would find the entire discourse so utterly in conflict with any idea of modern, reformist economic policies that you can see how government’s own media does not speak for it.

In any case, what is the government policy on key issues? On the economy, it seemed to follow calculated ambiguity until the new revenue secretary changed it to coercive diplomacy. On foreign policy, particularly on Pakistan, nothing has been done to sensitize public opinion on the historic opportunity that has emerged after an entire decade of peace on the LoC, while old establishment hawks (in India, not Pakistan) continue to fan disinformation. And on politics, the party is playing with the cards so close to its chest even on its nominee for the president, that every possible and impossible name is being speculated upon, the latest being Labour Minister Mallikarjun Kharge.

This reminds me of a story from I.K. Gujral’s short-lived government. His principal secretary (now governor of Jammu and Kashmir) N.N. Vohra, exasperated by decision-freeze in the PMO, once told him, "Prime Minister, there is an allegation against us that ours is a government of the Punjabis."

Gujral lifted his head and asked, sort of philosophically, "So what can we do about it?"

"For once, Sir, for just two weeks," said Vohra, "can we function like Punjabis?"

I am not betraying any confidences because Vohra did not tell me this story, Gujral did, and he will forgive me. But it is a conversation worth recalling in these unusual times.

Link:
http://epaper.financialexpress.com/38627/Indian-Express/21-May-2012#page/9/1

Economic Times - Letter From London - Sleeping on the Job? Check the Mattress

By: Sudeshna Sen published on 21st May 2012

Be afraid. Be very afraid. If you think that the rising mercury and falling rupee is bad enough, far more severe economic headwinds are coming your way. The euro zone isn’t headed for imminent collapse — it is already on its way, going to all kinds of hell in a flaming wire basket. If you think that’s something only the people who follow the sensex obsessively should worry about, you’re wrong. I keep reading from time to time, various analysts and commentators in India go on about what the government and RBI have done wrong — and what they should have, or should do to put the economy and exchange rate back on track.

Sure, there’s lots they could have done, in general and in particular. But if anyone thinks that Pranab or Subbarao could have prevented what’s happening to the rupee now, think again. No one expected the absolute mayhem that’s going on in Europe, though I’m told the Finmin has a contingency plan in place. At the risk of oversimplifying, for those of you who aren’t glued to Bloomberg tickers all the time, international traders and money managers — the ones you call FIIs, who are mainly responsible for dollar inflows — are all sticking their money under the mattress; they’re terrified of what may or may not happen in Europe and are taking no risks. JPMorgan’s loss hasn’t helped confidence any, either.

Sorry, high-growth, emerging markets do not fall in the super-safe, blue-chip or mattress category. Yes, they’ll bring their cash out again: a trader doesn’t earn his bread, butter or caviar by sitting on cash. But not now. I’m betting — not a penny, mind you — that they will start buying properly again after the summer school holidays. In case Europe goes into free fall, not even then. So you’re looking at a year of uncertainty, at least. I’d say that translates into a year of inflation, falling rupee, abysmal business confidence, low growth and uncertainty.

Uncertainty, anathema for global markets, is in this case a severe understatement. These days, tracking Europe, I feel like a hapless Lok Sabha reporter. Don’t knock the Indian political class. In the past week, we have had one head of the finance minister’s group, Jean-Claude Juncker of Luxembourg, openly lambasting his peers for "threatening Greece" on a daily basis, and presuming to dictate to the Greek electorate. We’ve had a German chancellor make conciliatory noises about Germany loosening its purse strings to help Greece, while her top aide said exactly the opposite. We’ve had European central bankers talk about a Grexit — actually, I prefer the term Drachmatisation, which I first stumbled across in Dr Doom Nouriel Roubini’s latest editorial. (He says Greece should now leave the euro and let ’em be damned. In January, he put this as a 50:50 chance. That’s how fast things are changing.)

We’ve had a non- euro head of state be seen to ‘lecture’ the EU; David Cameron telling them to make up or break up. We’ve had the EC head saying one thing, the ECB head saying something else. If you consider that the EU is like a loose federation of states, then Indian politicians, Mamata included, seem like a model of restraint and cooperation compared to Europeans, however much they disguise it in polite speak. In a nutshell, nobody seems to know what the devil they’re doing, and everyone’s pulling in different directions.

I don’t normally think David Cameron knows what he’s doing, but in this case, even if it annoys Europeans no end, I think he’s actually done the right thing. Hey, if Europe wants everyone to contribute to sorting out their mess through the IMF, they’ve got to take some tough medicine, including lectures from creditors. That’s precisely what Germany is doing to southern Europe, so what’s sauce for the goose…

Idunno what the Indian authorities can do to stave off a global financial meltdown tsunami effect. The economic news from China isn’t good either, and if the high-growth economies stall, Germany, which at least till now has the money — but not the will — to make a difference will start to feel the pain soon enough. Times will be tough, for at least a year.

What do I think India should do? Use this time to push through a few, lucrative, unpopular reforms, to keep the financial powder dry, in case a major economic stimulus, like in 2008, is needed. I’m horrified to hear Pranab starting to chant the austerity mantra, that’s a dead end to nowhere. I live in an austerity mantra society. Trust me, it’s hell. Don’t worry about FII inflows and fiscal deficits, the traders will be back once they’ve got over their mattress concerns. Some key structural reforms will help in restoring confidence when the money starts to come back, at first glance, retail, insurance and debt markets. Vodafone/Gaar’s a sideshow. Why am I so pessimistic about Europe?

What would you be, when the kind of people I talk to, who know about these things, are telling me about contingency plans companies are making for civil war in Greece, including evacuating their employees? Or political risk companies and human rights charities putting EU nations on the list? Or when top overseas businessmen are worrying about the rise of the far right, given that European electorates have lost faith in any moderate centre? Would you invest in a Europe that is poised to go nationalistic, protectionist and right wing? I don’t respect (despite having studied it) any economists, but am now starting to think Ms Merkel should be force-fed John Maynard Keynes.

We’re all told about German antipathy to hyper-inflation in the 1920s, but everyone seems to have forgotten that it was Great Depression of the 1930s that led to the rise of Hitler. The anti-German sentiment across the continent is rising — I’m told by the people who know that it’s palpable. The Germans don’t get why nobody likes their prescription of strict terms for bailouts, which to them seems completely correct and moral, and don’t understand what the kerfuffle is about. It’s about philosophical and cultural differences. Unfortunately, that's what (along with rubbish economic policy) led to the last world wars.

To quote someone I can’t officially quote, is Europe doomed to repeat its mistakes, because its leaders haven’t studied its history enough? We don’t think so, the demographics are different now.

But be afraid. Be very afraid.

Link:

http://epaper.timesofindia.com/Default/Scripting/ArticleWin.asp?From=Archive&Source=Page&Skin=ETNEW&BaseHref=ETM/2012/05/21&PageLabel=17&EntityId=Ar01702&ViewMode=HTML